Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uncertainty. Show all posts

Saturday, May 20, 2017

The OCD Zone: "The Nick of Time"

William Shatner, Twilight Zone



Time"
The Twilight Zone episode
Episode no.Season 2
Episode 7
Directed byRichard L. Bare
Written byRichard Matheson
Featured musicUncredited
Production code173-3643
Original air dateNovember 18, 1960
Guest appearance(s)
Episode chronology


"The hand belongs to Mr. Don S. Carter, male member of a honeymoon team on route across the Ohio countryside to New York City. In one moment, they will be subjected to a gift most humans never receive in a lifetime. For one penny, they will be able to look into the future. The time is now, the place is a little diner in Ridgeview, Ohio, and what this young couple doesn't realize is that this town happens to lie on the outskirts -- of the Twilight Zone."

"Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstition, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence -- having escaped one of the darker places -- of the Twilight Zone."




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Friday, February 24, 2017

A Book to Review

Uncertainty is a topic of profound interest to those that suffer with an anxiety disorder.








Saturday, January 23, 2016

Currently Reading: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Antifragile - Things That Gain From Disorder"


Aside from businessmen and investors, anyone who is uneasy with uncertainty, like anxiety disorder and OCD sufferers, can benefit from the profound insights of this book. You can learn to face uncertainty, It follows Nassim Nicholas Taleb's other great books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. I highly recommend it.



Nassim Nicholas Taleb




Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. 

The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. 

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. 

In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile,  Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the "Titanic" save lives? 

The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear. 

Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. 

Praise for Antifragile:

"Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining."-- The Economist. "A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives."--Newsweek.  "Revelatory . . . Taleb pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates."--Chicago Tribune. "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again." -- Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal. "Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb's insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . .  You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted."--New Statesman. "Antifragility isn't just sound economic and political doctrine. It's also the key to a good life."-- Fortune. "At once thought-provoking and brilliant."-- Los Angeles Times.




Nassim Nicholas Taleb


"Changed my view of how the world works." -- Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[This] is the lesson of Taleb . . . and also the lesson of our volatile times. There is more courage and heroism in defying the human impulse, in taking the purposeful and painful steps to prepare for the unimaginable." -- Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne."--- The Wall Street Journal "The most prophetic voice of all . . . [Taleb is] a genuinely significant philosopher . . . someone who is able to change the way we view the structure of the world through the strength, originality and veracity of his ideas alone." --GQ.



Nassim Nicholas Taleb




Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Monday, August 27, 2012

‘Explorers’ Use Uncertainty and Specific Area of Brain

February 8, 2012 by David Orenstein, Brown University
Center for uncertainty “Explorers,” whose decision-making style embraces the possibilities of uncertainty, use specific parts (red) of the right rostrolateral prefrontal cortex to make calculations based on relative uncertainty. Credit: Badre-Frank Lab/Brown University
As they try to find the best reward among options, some people explore based on how uncertain they are about the outcome of the options.  Those who employ that thought process, unlike people who use other strategies, uniquely harness the computational power of the rostrolateral prefrontal cortex, a new study finds.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — Life shrouds most choices in mystery. Some people inch toward a comfortable enough spot and stick close to that rewarding status quo. Out to dinner, they order the usual. Others consider their options systematically or randomly. But many choose to grapple with the uncertainty head on. “Explorers” order the special because they aren’t sure they’ll like it. It’s a strategy of maximizing rewards by discovering whether as yet unexplored options might yield better returns. In a new study, Brown University researchers show that such explorers use a specific part of their brain to calculate the relative uncertainty of their choices, while non-explorers do not.

The study, published in the journal Neuron, newly exposes an aspect of the brain’s architecture for producing decisions and learning, said co-author David Badre, assistant professor of cognitive, linguistic, and psychological sciences at Brown. There was no consensus that a precise area of the prefrontal cortex, in this case the right rostrolateral prefrontal cortex, would be so clearly associated with a specific operation, such as performing the requisite uncertainty comparison for supporting a decision-making strategy.


Exploratory behavior based on uncertaintyDavid Badre and Michael Frank discovered architecture in the frontal lobe that supports a decision-making style based on analysis of uncertainty. Credit: Paul Rochford Jr./Brown UniversityExploratory behavior based on uncertainty
David Badre and Michael Frank discovered architecture in the frontal lobe that supports a decision-making style based on analysis of uncertainty. Credit: Paul Rochford Jr./Brown University



“There has long been a debate about the functional organization of the frontal cortex,” Badre said. “There has been a notion that the frontal lobe lacks specialization when exercising cognitive control, that it’s undifferentiated. This study provides evidence that there is a kind of organization. This is an example of how higher-order functions such as decision-making may relate to the frontal lobe’s more general functional architecture.”

Stop the clock

To spot explorer behavior among their 15 participants, Badre and Michael Frank, associate professor of cognitive, linguistic, and psychological sciences, slid them into an MRI scanner and presented them with a game to play. Participants had to stop the sweeping hand of a virtual clock to win points in different rounds. They were told that they could maximize their rewards by responding quickly in some rounds, and slowly in others. The trick is they did not know round-to-round which response prevailed, and the number of points they could win was highly variable. They therefore had to employ a strategy to discover how to maximize their rewards among uncertain options, keeping track of the current expected value of fast and slow responses in each round.

While the MRI scanner tracked the blood flow in the brains of the subjects — a proxy for neural activity — the game’s software tracked their response times in each round. The computer then fed the game’s data into mathematical models devised to determine whether participants adapted their response times by taking relative uncertainty into account or adapted in another manner.

Over dozens of rounds a clear pattern emerged. Regardless of which version of the model they used, the researchers found that about half the subjects were engaging in exploratory behavior based on uncertainty: Their choices of response times correlated strongly with the choices that had the greatest outcome uncertainty.

Badre, Frank, and their team then looked at the MRI scans, reasoning that if decision-making is based on relative uncertainty, then the subjects’ brains must somehow represent this uncertainty.

Sure enough, as relative uncertainty between choice options increased, so did activation in the right rostrolateral prefrontal cortex. This effect was substantially stronger in the explorers than the nonexplorers.

The result is the first to show that this region of the brain keeps track of relative uncertainty to guide exploration, but is consistent with previous studies that have shown an association between the right rostrolateral prefrontal cortex and relative comparisons. It also provides a potential explanation for Frank’s previous findings that explorers were more likely to have a variation in a gene called COMT that affects dopamine levels in the prefrontal cortex.

From cortex to choice

Frank said researchers still don’t know why some people employ the explorer strategy while others do not, but they might not be so different. According to one hypothesis, they all have an aversion to uncertainty and ambiguity.

“The difference could be that some people are averse to ambiguity in the time point where they make a single decision and other people are averse to ambiguity about their strategy over the long run,” Frank said.

In other words, explorers may seek to reduce uncertainty by confronting it, rather than avoiding it.

Badre said that while the study has no direct clinical implications, the findings may still inform efforts to understand a broad set of disorders that affect frontal lobe function.

“There are a lot of diseases and disorders that affect the frontal lobes,” Badre said. “They affect the ability to live independently, to carry out the day and make good decisions that get you where you want to go. The more we know about the specificity of these systems, the better that you can diagnose and suggest treatments.”

In addition to Badre and Frank, both affiliated with the Brown Institute for Brain Science, other authors are Bradley Doll and Nicole Long.

The National Institute of Neurological Disease and Stroke and the National Institute of Mental Health supported the research.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not

I've mentioned before that the feeling of uncertainty is a trigger for those with OCD. I discovered Robert A. Burton, M. D.'s book on the flip side of the uncertainty sensation, On Being Certain.



From Amazon, "On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by
Robert Burton


You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do.

In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know. He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge. In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact. Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason.

But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen.

Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know. Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason.

Friday, June 15, 2012

They Earn Their Money the Old-Fashioned Way -- They Cheat: Enron






I won't write too much about the Enron debacle, except to say that it's a chilling example of everything that's wrong with corporations and executives with no ethics or remorse, who "game the financial systems." The DVD documentary reveals all the scandalous details. If you haven't already seen it, check it out. Yes indeedy, They Earn Their Money the Old-Fashioned Way -- They Cheat.

From Amazon: "One of the greatest scandals in American corporate history is chronicled in the riveting documentary Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room. Based on the bestselling book by Fortune magazine reporters Bethany McLean and Peter Elkin, and directed by Alex Gibney (who also produced The Trials of Henry Kissinger), the film is an epic morality tale, drawing upon a wealth of insider interviews and archival material to show how Enron, once the nation's seventh largest corporate entity, essentially faked its bookkeeping to report profits that never existed. The corrupt and closely-guarded mismanagement by Enron executives (including Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling, later placed on criminal trial) is revealed through such heinous concepts as "Hypothetical Future Value" (a way of reaping fortunes based on false profit projections) and the use of offshore "shell" companies to hide the massive losses that eventually toppled the company (along with the venerable Arthur Anderson accounting firm) and left 20,000 employees jobless. As a maddening portrait of hubris and white-collar crime, Enron transcends political and corporate boundaries by showing how smart and powerful men grew blinded by greed and brought ruin upon themselves, along with thousands of otherwise innocent victims. For better and worse, it's a perfect double-feature with eye-opening 2004 documentary The Corporation. -- Jeff Shannon"

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Risk vs. Uncertainty

Risk
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome). The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists (or existed). Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Almost any human endeavor carries some risk, but some are much more risky than others.

Risk versus uncertainty:

In his seminal work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Frank Knight established the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated. The term "risk," as loosely used in everyday speech and in economic discussion, really covers two things which, functionally at least, in their causal relations to the phenomena of economic organization, are categorically different. The essential fact is that "risk" means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomenon depending on which of the two is really present and operating. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all. We accordingly restrict the term "uncertainty" to cases of the non-quantitive type.”


Thus, Knightian uncertainty is immeasurable, not possible to calculate, while in the Knightian sense risk is measurable.

Another distinction between risk and uncertainty is proposed in How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business and The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It by Doug Hubbard:

Uncertainty: The lack of complete certainty, that is, the existence of more than one possibility. The "true" outcome/state/result/value is not known.

Measurement of uncertainty: A set of probabilities assigned to a set of possibilities. Example: "There is a 60% chance this market will double in five years"

Risk: A state of uncertainty where some of the possibilities involve a loss, catastrophe, or other undesirable outcome.
Measurement of risk: A set of possibilities each with quantified probabilities and quantified losses.
Example: "There is a 40% chance the proposed oil well will be dry with a loss of $12 million in exploratory drilling costs".

In this sense, Hubbard uses the terms so that one may have uncertainty without risk but not risk without uncertainty. We can be uncertain about the winner of a contest, but unless we have some personal stake in it, we have no risk. If we bet money on the outcome of the contest, then we have a risk. In both cases there are more than one outcome. The measure of uncertainty refers only to the probabilities assigned to outcomes, while the measure of risk requires both probabilities for outcomes and losses quantified for outcomes.

Risk attitude, appetite and tolerance:

The terms attitude, appetite and tolerance are often used similarly to describe an organization's or individual's attitude towards risk taking. Risk averse, risk neutral and risk seeking are examples of the terms that may be used to describe a risk attitude. Risk tolerance looks at acceptable/unacceptable deviations from what is expected. Risk appetite looks at how much risk one is willing to accept. There can still be deviations that are within a risk appetite.

Gambling is a risk-increasing investment, wherein money on hand is risked for a possible large return, but with the possibility of losing it all. Purchasing a lottery ticket is a very risky investment with a high chance of no return and a small chance of a very high return. In contrast, putting money in a bank at a defined rate of interest is a risk-averse action that gives a guaranteed return of a small gain and precludes other investments with possibly higher gain. The possibility of getting no return on an investment is also known as the Rate of Ruin.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

The Insatiable Desire to Understand Risk

Although uncertainty and doubt are often discussed in OCD studies, I have found that there is also a wealth of material in business and science books. Here are three good 'uns.

The Nature of Risk by Justin Mamis

"Sometimes the biggest risk of all is taking one, and the need to be sure you are making the right choice actually increases the risk. The market is not efficient and hedging doesn't work. To rely on charts to understand the market is Mamis' way. The author is an excellent market technician who offers sound financial guidance and insights into the prepared mind. He gets your thinking going with a comfortable investment philosphy that will often go against convention. There are enough anecdotes, war stories, and charts to make for sound advise. The path to market freedom is technique, and you don't have to be one of the best traders to succeed with experience. It seems to me that the entire 1990s have confirmed the ambiguities of market language and how to operate in such a world. You will know how to keep risk at bay which most of us find not to be an easy task."

Complexity, Risk, and Financial Markets by Edgar E. Peters

"A groundbreaking look at complexity theory and its implications in the world of finance

Complexity theory tells us that processes with a large number of seemingly independent agents-such as free markets-can spontaneously organize themselves into a coherent system. In this fascinating book, Edgar Peters brings together scientific theory, the artistic process, and economics to show how the randomness and uncertainty of complexity theory can be applied to financial markets. Written in an engaging and accessible style, this is a thoughtful, conceptual look at the way free markets are, by their nature, continually evolving complex systems. Expanding on previous explorations of chaos theory, Peters draws on real-life examples ranging from the Asian crisis to America's love of conspiracy to show that complexity and randomness are necessary for the free markets to operate in a competitive manner."

When in Doubt, Make Belief: An OCD-Inspired Approach to Living with Uncertainty by Jeff Bell 

"When in doubt, make belief . For author and news anchor Jeff Bell, these are words to live by. Literally. As someone who has spent much of his life battling severe obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), Bell has had to overcome crippling uncertainty few people can imagine. In this powerful follow-up to his critically acclaimed memoir, Rewind, Replay, Repeat , Bell expounds on the principles of applied belief that allowed him to make such a remarkable recovery from this “doubting disease” and the lessons he’s learned while traveling the country talking about doubt. With the help of more than a dozen leading experts, Bell offers readers practical techniques for pushing through the discomfort of uncertainty — whether it stems from OCD or just everyday worries — and demonstrates how a shift from decisions based on fear and doubt to ones based on purpose and service can transform any life."

Survey Says: Statistics and Networks

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way To Be Smart by Ian Ayres

"An international sensation—and still the talk of the relevant blogosphere—this Wall Street Journal and New York Times business bestseller examines the “power” in numbers. Today more than ever, number crunching affects your life in ways you might not even imagine. Intuition and experience are no longer enough to make the grade. In order to succeed—even survive—in our data-based world, you need to become statistically literate.

Cutting-edge organizations are already crunching increasingly larger databases to find the unseen connections among seemingly unconnected things to predict human behavior with staggeringly accurate results. From Internet sites like Google and Amazon that use filters to keep track of your tastes and your purchasing history, to insurance companies and government agencies that every day make decisions affecting your life, the brave new world of the super crunchers is happening right now. No one who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Ian Ayres’s engrossing and enlightening book."

The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century by David Salsburg

"An insightful, revealing history of the magical mathematics that transformed our world.
At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics.

The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way."

Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

"A cocktail party? A terrorist cell? Ancient bacteria? An international conglomerate?

All are networks, and all are a part of a surprising scientific revolution. Albert-László Barabási, the nation’s foremost expert in the new science of networks, takes us on an intellectual adventure to prove that social networks, corporations, and living organisms are more similar than previously thought. Grasping a full understanding of network science will someday allow us to design blue-chip businesses, stop the outbreak of deadly diseases, and influence the exchange of ideas and information. Just as James Gleick brought the discovery of chaos theory to the general public, Linked tells the story of the true science of the future."

The Great Risk Shift


Here's a 2006 book that really opened my eyes to economic risk in modern America. Risk is an OCD topic that is always compelling.

"America's leaders say the economy is strong and getting stronger. But ordinary Americans aren't buying it. They see what the rosy statistics hide: We are all struggling under the weight of terrifying economic instability. No matter how well educated and hard working we are, we know that the bottom can fall out at any moment. Meanwhile, the safety net that once protected us is fast unraveling. With retirement plans in growing jeopardy while health coverage erodes, more and more economic risk is shifting from government and business onto the fragile shoulders of the American family.
In The Great Risk Shift, Jacob S. Hacker lays bare this unsettling new economic climate, showing how it has come about, what it is doing to our families, and how we can fight back. Behind this shift, he contends, is the Personal Responsibility Crusade, eagerly embraced by corporate leaders and Republican politicians who speak of a nirvana of economic empowerment, an "ownership society" in which Americans are free to choose.
But as Hacker reveals, the result has been quite different: a harsh new world of economic insecurity, in which far too many Americans are free to lose. The book documents how two great pillars of economic security -- the family and the workplace -- guarantee far less financial stability than they once did. The final leg of economic support -- the public and private benefits that workers and families get when economic disaster strikes -- has dangerously eroded as political leaders and corporations increasingly cut back protections of our health care, our income security, and our retirement pensions.
Hacker concludes by advocating an "insurance and opportunity society" that would safeguard economic security and expand economic opportunity, ensuring that all Americans have the basic financial security they need to reach for and achieve the American Dream. Jacob Hacker brings into focus as never before the pressures that the Great Risk Shift exerts on our pocketbooks and on our lives. Blending powerful human stories, big-picture analysis, and compelling ideas for reform, this remarkable volume will hit a nerve, serving as a rallying point in the vital struggle for economic security in an increasingly uncertain world."

Monday, June 4, 2012

Favorite Science Writers: William Poundstone


Here are two of my faves by William Poundstone that I read years ago. Both are first-rate.

Labyrinths of Reason: Paradox, Puzzles, and the Frailty of Knowledge

We conceive of and describe the world in ways that usually work just fine, but in the far corners of the labyrinth of reason, our best intentions fold back on themselves, and we end up trapped in an intractable loop or tumbling down a chute of infinite regress. Labyrinths of Reason is a collection of classic philosophical thought experiments and other imponderables that push reason and language to their logical limits. Beyond just idle brainteasers, William Poundstone shows that these mental exercises have profound implications for such fields as cryptography, decision theory, subatomic physics, and computer programming. But most of all, they're good, clean philosophical fun.

Prisoner's Dilemma

When it flourished in the 1950s, game theory, the construct of Hungarian-born mathematician John von Neumann (1903-1957), was the dominant metaphor for nuclear war debates. Game theorists today operate on more modest economic and organizational models but this reevaluation of game theory's development is nevertheless interesting. Poundstone's three-dimensional outline of the mathematics of game theory sketches von Neumann's life and offers game theory scenarios of Cold War history. The "prisoner's dilemma" is the classic model of conflict situations in which strategies leading to either individual gain or the common good are examined. Featuring much of the think tank/parlor game quality that makes game theory so seductive, Poundstone wisely restricts his discussion of von Neumann to that which serves his theme. The West's Cold War policy was formed around the structure of game theory at the RAND Corporation and other think tanks; Poundstone makes essential connections among the theory, von Newmann's politics and historical forces.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Icons From The Age of Anxiety: The Genius of Logic Kurt Gödel

Kurt Friedrich Gödel (1906-1978): Celebrated for Gödel's incompleteness theorems, Gödel's completeness theorem, the consistency of the Continuum hypothesis with ZFC, Gödel metric, Gödel's ontological proof. Gödel, “established, beyond comparison, as the most important logician of our times,” in the words of Solomon Feferman, founded the modern, metamathematical era in mathematical logic. His Incompleteness Theorems, among the most significant achievements in logic since, perhaps, those of Aristotle, are among the handful of landmark theorems in twentieth century mathematics. His work touched every field of mathematical logic, if it was not in most cases their original stimulus. In his philosophical work Gödel formulated and defended mathematical Platonism, involving the view that mathematics is a descriptive science, and that the concept of mathematical truth is an objective one. On the basis of that viewpoint he laid the foundation for the program of conceptual analysis within set theory. He adhered to Hilbert'soriginal rationalistic conception” in mathematics (as he called it);  he was prophetic in anticipating and emphasizing the importance of large cardinals in set theory before their importance became clear.

Logic failed in later life, as Gödel suffered periods of mental instability and illness. He had an obsessive fear of being poisoned; he would eat only food that his wife, Adele, prepared for him. Late in 1977, Adele was hospitalized for six months and could no longer prepare Gödel's food. In her absence, he refused to eat, eventually starving to death. He weighed 65 pounds when he died. His death certificate reported that he died of "malnutrition and inanition caused by personality disturbance" in Princeton Hospital on January 14, 1978.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

The Game is On: Sherlock: Season One DCD (2010)

Here's an updated version of Sherlock Holmes that I enjoyed tremendously. Check it out if you haven't already seen it.

"A contemporary take on the classic Arthur Conan Doyle stories, Sherlock is a thrilling, funny, fast-paced adventure series set in present-day London. Co-created by Steven Moffat (Doctor Who, Coupling) and Mark Gatiss, Sherlock stars BAFTA-nominee Benedict Cumberbatch (Hawking, Amazing Grace) as the new Sherlock Holmes and Martin Freeman (The Office, Love Actually), as his loyal friend, Doctor John Watson. Rupert Graves plays Inspector Lestrade. The iconic details from Conan Doyle's original books remain -- they live at the same address, have the same names and, somewhere out there, Moriarty is waiting for them. And so across three thrilling, scary, action-packed and highly modern-day adventures, Sherlock and John navigate a maze of cryptic clues and lethal killers to get at the truth."

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Peter L. Bernstein's Eloquent Histories

Two other fine histories on Wall Street, risk, and statistics are Peter L. Bernstein's Against the Gods and Capital Ideas.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Iconoclastic Quant Books

The topics of uncertainty, risk, and finding hidden order in chaos have long interested me perhaps because of my OCD, or perhaps because of my interest in art and design. Even in entertainment, such as crime novels, I have delighted in such scholarly characters as Sherlock Holmes and his offspring. Naturally, some of the best books on risk and uncertainty are found in the business and science sections. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's books are great reads on the overconfidence of certain statistict tools and "Quant" models, in terms of controlling risk on Wall Street.